AXNT20 KNHC 111645
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 5-10 kt. A 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed
along monsoon trough near 12.5N29W. Recent satellite scatterometer
data shows strong S to SW winds to 30 kt across the SE semicircle
and fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the N semicircle.
Seas are 8 to 11 ft across these areas. This broad system is
producing a large area of scattered to numerous moderate isolated
strong convection from 06.5N to 17N and between 20W and 36W.
Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 18N, moving
westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is observed from 08N to 15.5N and between 38W and 44W.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88.5W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to interact with
an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean and Central America, and
is supporting scattered moderate strong convection over the NW
Caribbean and adjacent portions of Central America from 10N to
18.5N between 82W and 89.5W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W and continues to 14N27W then southwestward to a
1012 mb low near 12.5N29W to 11.5N36W to 07.5N46W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N47W to 07N59W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted
from 03N to 08N between 20W and the coast of Africa.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends across northern Florida and enters the NE
Gulf waters near Cedar Key and continues southwestward to 26.5N86W
where it has become stationary and continues to 23.5N94W to the
Mexican coast near 24N98W. from 30N84W to 25N97W, then becomes
stationary to 23N97W. Scattered moderate convection is found along
a pre-frontal trough from the Tampa Bay area southwestward to
25N87.5W and within 90 nm N of the front between 93W and 98W.
A surface trough is analyzed S of the front near the Mexican coast
from just north of Tampico to near Veracruz, where scattered
moderate convection is also evident. 1020 mb high pressure has
shifted southward into the N central Gulf, centered just E of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, and extends a broad ridge behind
the front. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail N of the front
to 28.5N, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. However, NE swell generated by
Isaias continues to move across the western Gulf, and is
producing 6 to 7 ft seas from 21N to 24N W of 94W, where large
waves are generating rough surf along much of the Mexican coast W
of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate
seas prevail.
For the forecast, the cold front will move across the southeast
Gulf through mid week. High pressure building behind the front
over the north- central Gulf will support E to SE winds and
moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and
gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. Large NE swell in the
west-central Gulf W of 94W is subsiding this morning.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active
tropical wave in the western Caribbean.
A large upper level low center is shifting westward across the
eastern Caribbean, and generating a significant area of scattered
moderate convection from 13N to 18N between 59W and 69W. At the
surface, high pressure remains well north of the basin across the
NW Atlantic. The modest pressure gradient across the Caribbean is
forcing moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to
locally rough seas to 8 ft across most of the basin E of 82W. A
few areas of strong winds are occurring S of Hispaniola, through
the Windward Passage, and along the coast of Colombia.
For the forecast, an upper level low will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms E of 68W to the Leeward Islands.
Another upper trough will also support thunderstorms across the
western Caribbean. High pressure well north of the area will
support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the
eastern and central Caribbean through into Mon, with fresh to
strong E winds and rough seas across the Windward Passage and off
Colombia. These winds and seas will diminish Tue as the high
pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the
Gulf of America and western Atlantic.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N45W and
continues southwestward to 28N52W, then becomes stationary to
27N64W to 31N69W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm S of these
boundaries between 51W and 64W, then become scattered to numerous
within 180 nm SE of the cold front between 43W and 51W. Meanwhile,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue in a 75 nm
wide band off NE Florida, ahead of a cold front moving across the
eastern Gulf of America and N Florida. The modest pressure
gradient between a strong ridge over the NW Atlantic and the
aforementioned front north of the Leeward Islands is sustaining
moderate easterly winds S of 25N between 63W and the central
Bahamas, and moderate to fresh southerly winds across the northern
Bahamas and waters W of 76W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft S of 25N and 4 to
7 ft from the NW Bahamas northward. NW Atlantic high pressure is
forcing fresh to locally strong N to NE winds behind the fronts
between 45W and 66W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the
influence of a 1022 mb high pressure located SE of the Azores.
The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and lower
pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports moderate
to locally strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough to about
24N and E of 44W, with strong winds about the 2 tropical waves.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front moving through Florida
will enter the Atlantic off NE Florida this evening, and into the
adjacent offshore waters overnight. The front will reach from
Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by early Tue. The northern part
of the front will continue to move eastward before stalling and
dissipating through mid week, while the western part lifts
northward across the Bahamas and Florida while dissipating.
Looking ahead, moderate NW winds may follow another front stalling
along 30N to the southeast of Bermuda by late Thu night.
$$
Stripling