AXNT20 KNHC 142009 CCA
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026
Corrected Atlantic section
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 39W from 10N
to 20N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered showers are west of
the wave axis from 13N to 17N between 40W and 44W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along a position
from 20N55W to 08N56W. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm west of the wave from
08N to 09N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and
extends to 08N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N31W
to 06N45W and to near 08N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between
27W-33W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of
the ITCZ between 18W-22W and between 24W-28W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A high pressure ridge extends from a 1020 mb high center that
is over eastern Tennessee southwestward to the western Gulf while
an old frontal boundary extends from the Straits of Florida to
just west of the western tip of Cuba. Recent scatterometer
satellite data along with buoy observations reveal mostly moderate
east winds south of 27N east of 91W, and moderate to fresh east
to southeast winds west of 91W. Light to gentle winds east to
southeast winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the range of 3 to 5 ft,
except for slightly lower seas of 2 to 4 ft over the northern
Gulf.
For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will dominate the Gulf
region through Fri producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds and
slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the
northwest Gulf Fri evening, and reach from southwest Florida to
the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and
moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible
over the west-central Gulf by Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf
by late Sat. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the
strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the
SW Gulf trough Sun.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A mid-level low located south-southwest of the western tip of
Cuba continues to sustain scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the waters south of Cuba, and in the Gulf of
Honduras while a mid to upper-level low over the central Caribbean
continues to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
over Hispaniola and its adjacent waters, including the waters just
south of the Mona Passage. This activity reaches southward to near
14N and east of 75W to 66W. Latest scatterometer satellite data
reveals a wide swath of fresh to strong east to southeast winds over
the waters southwest of Haiti roughly from 14N to 18N between 72W
and 77W. A container ship, with caller ID "OXK02"-Olivia Maersk,
reported southeast winds of 35 kt near 17.5N75W at 15Z as a gust
front racing to the northwest generated by the convective activity
south of Hispaniola passed over it. This feature helped set-off
moderate convection over Jamaica. A weak low of 1010 mb is analyzed
in the southwestern Caribbean near 13N79W. A trough extends from the
low north-northeastward to just south of Jamaica. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are seen from 11N to 17N between 75W and 79W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 75W. A 60
nm wide area of fresh to strong east to southeast winds is south of
Haiti between 71W and 73W. Similar winds are just offshore the coast
of Colombia between 73W and 74W. Recent scatterometer satellite data
reveals moderate or weaker trades elsewhere, except for trades of
moderate to fresh speeds north and northeast of the western
Caribbean low pressure. Seas across the basin are mostly in the
range of 3 to 5 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 4 to 6 ft
from 11N to 18N between 76W and 80W and lower seas of 2 to 4 ft
north of 15N between 64W and 85W, and in the Gulf of Honduras and in
the approaches to the Windward Passage.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in
northern South America will support moderate to fresh trade winds
offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the
upcoming weekend, with locally rough seas offshore Colombia.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
elsewhere. Moisture associated with a mid to upper-level low over
the central Caribbean will reach the northwestern Caribbean on
Thu, keeping the chances of showers and thunderstorms across the
basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected
Surface ridging anchored by a 1020 mb in eastern Tennessee
reaches southward and southeastern to across the waters just north
of the Bahamas. A trough, an old frontal boundary, extends from a
1014 mb low well north of the area near 35N55W southwestward to
31N62W, to 28N70W, to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of
Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 30 to 60
nm northwest of the trough west of 75W, and within 30 nm either
side of the trough between 75W and 68W. To the east, a 1015 mb low
is centered near 25N67W, with a trough extending northeastward to
31N58W, and another trough extending from the low southwestward
to near 22N71W. An area of scattered moderate convection is
evident over the north-central waters north of about 28N and
between 45W and 49W. This activity is ahead of an upper shortwave
trough that is approaching from the NW.
Over the eastern Atlantic, a weak 1013 mb low is near 20N35W as
detected by a couple of recent scatterometer satellite data passes.
A trough extends from the low north-northwestward to 28N38W. A small
mid to upper-level low moving west-southwestward is seen in water
vapor imagery near 25N41W while a larger upper-level low moving
westward is seen near 19N51W. Mostly broken to overcast mid to upper-
level clouds are present to the east and northeast of these
features. Embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted from 23N to 28N between 30W and the trough that extends from
the 1013 mb low. A tight gradient between the trough and high
pressure to its north has resulted in an area of fresh to strong
east to southeast winds that covers the water roughly from 20N to
26N between 30W and 33W, and also from 23N to 26N between 33W and
37W. Seas are in the range of 8 to 11 ft within this area of winds.
The remainder subtropical central and eastern Atlantic is under the
influence of the Azores High, which is generally supporting moderate
to fresh northeast winds and moderate seas to 6 ft between the coast
of NW Africa and 24W, including the waters adjacent to the Canary
Islands. Seas peaking to around 6 ft are with these winds as
indicated by an overnight altimeter satellite data pass. Moderate or
weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere north
of 20N and west of 24W.
For the forecast west of 55W, moisture associated with the
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity that is northwest
of the trough, the old frontal boundary, that extends from 31N62W
to the Straits of Florida will advect northward through at least
Thu. A cold front will reach waters east of northeast Florida on
Fri, with little change in winds and seas. A stronger cold front
is expected to move across the waters off northeast Florida by
late Fri night into early Sat morning, then reach from Bermuda to
South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and
rough seas will follow the front.
$$
Aguirre
