AXNT20 KNHC 270523
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Aug 27 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A 1007 mb low pressure,
associated with a tropical wave, is located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Showers and
thunderstorms associated with this system have slightly improved
in organization over the last several hours. However, recently
received satellite wind data suggests that the circulation is not
yet well-defined. Environmental conditions are somewhat favorable
for development over the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression could form within the next day or two as the system
moves westward to west-northwestward near 20 kt across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic. However, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive by this weekend,
potentially ending its chances for development. This system has a
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48
hours and 7 days.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at website:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on
this feature.
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will
support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas
through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force
tonight and Thu night off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela,
along with locally very rough seas.
Please refer to the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A Tropical N Atlantic tropical wave is along 62W moving across
the Lesser Antilles and into the far eastern Caribbean Sea, south
of 21N, moving quickly westward at 15-20 kt. No significant deep
convection is occurring in association with this wave over water.
A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, south of 20N,
moving quickly westward at 15-20 kt. No significant deep
convection is occurring in association with this wave over water.
A tropical wave has departed the NW Caribbean Sea, now over the
central Yucatan Peninsula to the far eastern Pacific Ocean, and is
helping to enhance convection over portions of the peninsula.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends southwestward from 19N16W to 1008 mb
low pressure, Invest AL96, near 13N33W to 14N43W. The ITCZ
extends from 14N43W to 11N60W. Other than the convection
described above with Invest AL96, scattered showers are noted
along the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Dry conditions are present across the basin as a weak ridging
prevails, anchored by a 1015 mb high near 27N93W. Light to gentle
winds prevail across the area, with slight seas.
For the forecast, weak pressure pattern will persist across the Gulf
waters through the forecast period, supporting moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to
locally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the
evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the
peninsula each night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia and in the Gulf
of Venezuela.
Divergence aloft and tropical moisture combine to produce
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Costa Rica
and Panama nearshore waters. Dry conditions prevail elsewhere over
water. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong easterly
trade winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere from 11N to 18N
between 68W and 80W with 6 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades
prevail across the remainder of the waters from 11N to 18N, with
gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are slight in the NW
Caribbean, and moderate across the remainder of the waters.
For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient will support fresh
to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas through the forecast
period. Winds will pulse again to gale-force on Thu night off
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, along with locally very
rough seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Windward
Passage at night. An area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently
located in the eastern Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical
development over the next 7 days. The system may bring increasing
winds and seas to portions of the Tropical N Atlantic this
weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
an area of low pressure, Invest AL96, that has a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation.
Divergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from roughly 27N to 31N and W of 79W. A weak
surface trough runs from north of the waters through 31N57W to
24N61W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found
within 90-120 nm either side of the trough. To the east, a cold
front is analyzed N of 27N and E of 42W with no noticeable
convective activity near the boundary. Fresh to strong winds
associated with Invest AL96 are found from 10N to 22N between 27W
and 36W, with rough to very rough seas from 09N to 19N between 26W
and 33W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the
monsoon trough to 24N between 26W and 40W, with fresh northerly
winds funneling along the coast of Africa from 18N to 26N to the
east of 23W. Moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of
the offshore and open waters. Slight seas are west of 70W, with
mainly moderate seas across the remainder of the waters, except
also slight withing about 150 nm ahead/south of the cold front
mentioned.
For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge, and
associated weak pressure gradient, will dominate the SW N Atlantic
waters over the next several days. This will support mainly
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will
pulse to fresh to strong off northern Hispaniola at night. An
area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the
eastern Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical development over
the next 7 days. The system may bring increasing winds and seas to
portions of the southeast waters this weekend.
$$
ERA
