AXNT20 KNHC 160624
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Oct 16 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Significant Swell Event...
Large W swell and wind waves generated by fresh to strong winds
will keep 11 to 13 ft seas north of 28N between 35W and 42W until
early Thursday morning. Then large SW swell and wind waves related
to a strong cold front will cause 11 to 13 ft seas north of 27N
between 50W and 35W by Thursday afternoon. These very rough seas
will then shift eastward along with the cold front through
Saturday. Afterward, an intense low pressure at the northwestern
Atlantic could bring even larger N swell across the western
Atlantic later in the weekend.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands near 30W from 15N southward, and moving west around
15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
from 04N to 12N between 27W and 36W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 13N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate with
isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 09N between 37W
and 48W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then curves southwestward across
07N22W to 09N32W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N32W to
08N40W, then northwestward from 07N44W to 09N51W. Scattered to
numerous heavy showers are occurring near and south of the
monsoon trough from 03N to 12N between the Guinea-Bissau/Liberia
coast and 18W. Convection near the ITCZ is already described in
the Tropical Waves section above.
Numerous heavy showers and scattered strong thunderstorms are
evident at the Gulf of Venezuela, near the eastern end of the
East Pacific monsoon trough.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from the central Gulf southeastward to the Yucatan
Channel. Moderate to locally fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 3
to 5 ft are noted near this trough and at the eastern Gulf,
including the Florida Straits. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft
seas prevail for rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the region, resulting in
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over much of
the Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The western end of a cold front lies over eastern Cuba and the
Great Bahama Bank. Convergent SW winds south of this feature are
generating scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms from
near Jamaica eastward across Hispaniola to western Puerto Rico.
Farther east, an upper-level trough is triggering isolated
thunderstorms near the Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea.
Gentle to moderate winds from the south dominate the eastern
basin, while similar winds from the NW are present at the lee of
Cuba. Seas at both areas are from 2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds
with 1 to 2 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the
basin through Sat. A tropical wave will move across the tropical
Atlantic waters late this weekend with fresh to strong winds, and
rough seas accompanying the wave. The tropical wave is forecast to
enter the Caribbean waters by early next week, bringing fresh
winds and rough seas over the eastern basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the Special Features section for further details
on significant swells in the central Atlantic.
A cold front extends southwestward from northeast of Bermuda
across 31N57W and the southeast Bahamas to eastern Cuba.
Convergent SW winds south of the front are causing scattered
moderate convection from 20N to 23N between 60W and 67W. A surface
trough is sustaining scattered moderate convection east of the
Leeward Island from 16N to 21N between 53W and 60W. Farther
northeast, the remnants of Tropical Storm Jerry is causing
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 23N to 26N
between 39W and 41W. Convergent southerly winds south of a
stationary front across the northern-central Atlantic are
creating similar convection north of 28N between 30W and 34W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at
the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin
Other than the significant swells mentioned in the Special
Features section at the very beginning, fresh to strong with
locally near-gale SW winds and 6 to 10 ft seas are present north
of 23N between 35W and 63W. Farther west north of 23N, moderate to
locally fresh NW to N winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are noted. For
the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 23N between 35W and the
southeast Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh ENE to SE to SW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are seen.
For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to
moderate ESE to S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mix moderate swells
prevail.
For the forecast W of 55W, a series of cold fronts will move
across the western and central Atlantic waters through Sat. High
pressure will then build in the wake of the fronts. Fresh to
strong winds are expected across the waters north of 25N through
at least Sat before diminishing. The fronts will usher in several
rounds of northerly swell across the same region. Rough seas will
cover the waters north of 25N through Sat, before spreading
southward to cover much of the waters east of 70W by Sat. Seas
will then subside from west to east the remainder of the weekend
into early next week. Very rough seas will move into the waters
north of 27N and east of 70W from early Fri through Sat night.
$$
Chan