AXNT20 KNHC 292303
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jan 30 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Significant rainfall event: A weakening stationary front extends
from the Windward Passage to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua.
This boundary, along with low level onshore flow, is allowing for
deep moisture to prevail in the area. Persisting rainfall is
expected over northern Honduras and E Nicaragua, particularly
along the Caribbean coast, through this evening. Additional
rainfall will generally range from 2 to 4 inches, with isolated 4+
inches possible, especially along the windward slopes and near
the north coast of Honduras where the onshore flow persists.
Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware as
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the
area through later today. Please follow your local weather office
for more details.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: High pressure over the southeast
United States is shifting east today ahead of a low pressure area
moving into the lower Mississippi Valley. A trailing cold front
will move off the Texas coast tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N
winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from
Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening.
The low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the
western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves
southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air
across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near
Veracruz Sat morning, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat
evening, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the
Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the northern
Gulf following the front.
Of note: With de above mentioned cold front, a potentially record
breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week
in South Florida. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures
are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sunday,
Monday and Tuesday morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far
South as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all
of South Florida.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, and continues southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N19W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of 08N between 24W and 40W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning for the SW Gulf, expected to begin on Sat.
High pressure of 1025 mb located over the SE of the United States
extends a ridge across Florida and the Gulf waters. The pressure
gradient between the high, the trough, and a lingering frontal
boundary in the western Caribbean is producing moderate to fresh N
winds across the SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel, with
moderate seas based on latest altimeter data. The highest seas
are found in the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure over the southeast United States
is shifting east today ahead of a low pressure area moving into
the lower Mississippi Valley. A trailing cold front will move off
the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and
building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama
City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The
low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the
western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves
southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air
across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near
Veracruz Sat morning, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat
evening, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking
ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the
Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the northern
Gulf following the front.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the Special Features section above for details on additional
rainfall expected over the Honduras/Nicaragua area through this
evening.
A lingering front remains nearly stationary from the Windward
Passage to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua. The tight pressure
gradient between this front and the ridge over the southern
United States and Gulf of America supports fresh to strong
northerly winds and moderate to rough seas behind the boundary.
Moderate to rough seas prevail across much of this area. In the
south-central Caribbean, recent satellite scatterometer data
captured fresh to strong NE winds near the coast of Colombia. Seas
in these waters are moderate. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will prevail across
over the reefs off Nicaragua tonight. The front may briefly start
moving southeastward off Nicaragua and Costa Rica as a weakening
cold front Fri into Sat. This will happen ahead of an unusually
strong cold front that will move into the northwest Caribbean Sat
morning and move southeastward, merge with the old lingering front
from eastern Cuba to western Panama Sat evening. The merged front
will reach from eastern Hispaniola to the northwest coast of
Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico
to northwest Colombia by early Tue. Strong to near gale- force N
winds and rough seas are expected behind this front.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Scattered thunderstorms are active near a 1014 mb low pressure
center at 28N60W, which is along a stationary front reaching from
31N47W to the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough
seas follow the front north of 29N, and fresh to strong SW winds
and rough seas are ahead of the front. Rough seas are within these
winds. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is dominated
by a 1025 mb high pressure situated near 28N28W. The associated
ridge extends toward the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate to very rough seas in mixed N and E
swell are found south of 23N and east of 60W. The strongest winds
and highest seas are observed in the eastern Atlantic. Large
northerly swell spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a
strong low pressure well north of the area. Rough to very rough
seas are reaching the Madeira and Canary Islands. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move between
northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight, but stall early Fri and
lift north of the area through late Fri ahead of a complex low
pressure moving into the Carolina coast. This will bring an
unusually strong cold front that will move off northeast Florida
Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is forecast to
deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, inducing a
very large area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local
waters N of 23.5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun
evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is
expected to reach from 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from
31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and
stall from 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening.
$$
ERA