AXNT20 KNHC 242209
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jun 25 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W from 15N southward,
and moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
observed from 03N to 09N between 28W and 36W.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from 18N
southward. No significant deep convection is noted in association
with this tropical wave.
An central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from 18N southward
into northwestern Venezuela. No significant deep convection is
noted in association with this tropical wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W along the coast
of Mauritania, then runs southwestward to 05N40W. An ITCZ
continues westward from 05N40W to near 05N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 04N-06N between 43W-51W. Isolated
moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N between 28W and
36W.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is bringing
isolated moderate convection across the SW Caribbean waters near
Panama.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
1020 mb high pressure is centered over the NW Gulf near 27N93W.
Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are found across the
N-central and E Gulf. Mainly moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. No significant deep
convection is occurring this afternoon.
For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will dominate
the basin through early Fri before Atlantic high pressure builds
westward across Florida and into the Gulf basin along 27N-28N Fri
through Sun. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally
prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan
Peninsula nightly through the weekend, and moderate to fresh SE
winds across far northwest portions Fri night. Looking ahead, a
weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the NE Gulf Mon
night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad Atlantic Ridge across the western Atlantic near 29N
continues to sustain a robust trade-wind pattern across much of
the Caribbean Basin. An upper-level trough is causing scattered
moderate convection near Jamaica. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the
Caribbean Sea. Strong NE to E winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are
present over the SW part of the basin, while fresh E winds along
with 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the central part of the basin.
Moderate to locally fresh E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail
over the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3
to 4 ft seas are found at the NW basin. Moderate to fresh trades
and seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned
ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade
winds, and rough seas in the south-central basin through tonight,
before expanding northward to near 18N Thu morning through Sat
morning. Expect winds at near-gale force offshore of Colombia
during the nighttime and early morning hours, with gale-force
winds likely S of 13.5N Fri night. Pulsing fresh to strong winds
and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras nightly through Sat night. Fresh trades with rough seas
should persist east of the Lesser Antilles through midday Thu,
diminishing to moderate winds and seas thereafter through Sun.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 31N77W to the Florida-Georgia
border with winds on either side of the front being gentle to
moderate. Farther east, an vigorous upper-level low near 29N65W
is triggering scattered moderate convection from 25N to 31N
between 61W and 68W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin.
Moderate SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted east of
Florida, north of 28N between 69W and 75W. Otherwise, a broad
ridge extending west-southwestward from the central Atlantic to
the NE Bahamas is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and
3 to 6 ft seas north of 22N between 35W and the east coast of
Florida. For the tropical Atlantic south 22N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E
trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft exist.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned ridge will
dominate the western Atlantic through the weekend. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms with strong gusty winds will
continue across the waters offshore of Florida and the NW Bahamas
through Thu, along and SE of a stalled front and pre-frontal
surface rough across the NW zones. Fresh to strong easterly winds
with locally rough seas are expected near the northern coasts of
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico each late afternoon through night
through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade
winds and moderate seas are expected south of 22N through Fri. A N
to S aligned surface trough across the central Atlantic will
shift westward across the region early Fri through late Sat,
reaching 70W Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge and lead to
diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink
southward into the far NW zones off of NE Florida Mon night.
$$
Landsea/Rosado-Vazquez