AXNT20 KNHC 132034

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Sun Dec 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

West Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force winds are forecast to

begin at 15/0000 UTC, lasting through 15/1200 UTC, northwest of a

cold front that will move across the western Atlantic waters.

Seas will range from 12-14 ft. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS

FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more

information.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: MeteoFrance has issued a Gale

Warning for the MADEIRA and CANARIAS Marine Zones. For Madeira,

the warning is valid through 13/2100 UTC, and for Canarias, the

warning is valid through 14/0000 UTC. Please read the latest HIGH

SEAS FORECAST issued by MeteoFrance at:

https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more

information.

East Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Strong to near- gale force

north winds has generated a significant area of large, long

period N swell in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Seas 12 ft or

greater are north of 15N and east of 35W, with peak seas to 22 ft

near the Canary Islands. The swell direction is N with 15-19 sec

periods. Seas are forecast to start to decrease tonight,

subsiding below 12 ft by early Monday morning. Please read the

latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by MeteoFrance at:

https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more

information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through 08N13W and extends

to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 01N50W. Scattered

moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N

between 13W and 24W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to

06N between 30W and 50W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the Gulf waters. Seas are in

the 2-4 ft range, except over the NE Gulf where seas of 1-2 ft

prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure located over north Florida and

the adjacent Atlantic waters will slide northeastward and into the

NW Atlantic through tonight ahead of a cold front forecast to

enter the northern Gulf on Sun morning. Strong northerly winds and

rough seas will follow the front. This system is expected to

reach the south-central Gulf along 24N by Mon morning, and move

south of the basin Mon night. Strong high pressure will dominate

the Gulf region in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, prevail in the south

central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft

are elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W, moderate winds, and seas of 4-6

ft, prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough

seas are expected over the central Caribbean through Sun morning

due to the pressure gradient between the Colombian low and a

modest western Atlantic ridge. Winds will pulse to near gale-force

at night offshore of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to

locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will

prevail over the Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages

and into the eastern part of the basin through Mon night. A cold

front will enter the northwestern Caribbean Mon, accompanied by

increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This front is

expected to reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue morning, then

will begin to stall and weaken through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on

GALE WARNINGS for the western and eastern Atlantic Ocean, and a

SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT in the eastern Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N55W to eastern Cuba. Scattered

moderate and isolated strong convection is along the front. Gentle

to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail west of the front.

Aside from the gale force winds, and very rough seas discussed in

the SPECIAL FEATURES section above, fresh to near- gale force

winds, and seas of 8-12 ft prevail E of 35W. Fresh to locally

strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft prevail elsewhere S of 22N.

Gentle winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to move off the coast

of the southeastern United States on Sun, followed by strong to

gale-force northerly winds and quickly building seas through Mon

morning. The front is expected to reach from just E of Bermuda to

the NW Bahamas into the Straits by Mon morning, and from 29N55W to

the SE Bahamas and central Cuba by Tue morning. Large N swell

will build in across the regional waters behind the front Sun

night through Tue morning before subsiding. Elsewhere, a

stationary front extending from 31N55W through the SE Bahamas and

across eastern Cuba will lift northward and dissipate on Sun.

$$

AL

AXNT20 KNHC 131720

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Sat Dec 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

West Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force winds are forecast to

begin at 15/0000 UTC, lasting through 15/1200 UTC, northwest of a

cold front that will move across the western Atlantic waters.

Seas will range from 12-14 ft. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS

FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more

information.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: MeteoFrance has issued a Gale

Warning for the MADEIRA and CANARIAS Marine Zones. For Madeira,

the warning is valid through 13/2100 UTC, and for Canarias, the

warning is valid through 14/0000 UTC. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS

FORECAST issued by MeteoFrance at:

https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more

information.

East Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Continuing strong to near-

gale force north winds in the lee of a dissipated frontal boundary

has built a significant area of large, long period N swell in the

eastern Atlantic Ocean. Seas 12 ft or greater are north of 15N and

east of 35W, with peak seas to 22 ft near the Canary Islands. The

swell direction is N with 15-19 sec periods. Peak seas are

forecast to diminish tonight, subsiding below 12 ft by early

Monday morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued

by MeteoFrance at: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2

for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through 08N13W and extends

to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 01N50W. Scattered

moderate convection is from 03N to 11N east of 28W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered moderate convection, associated with a surface trough,

is from 25N to 29N between 94W and 96W in the NW Gulf waters.

1024 mb high pressure centered over N Florida provides for gentle

to moderate E to SE winds across the Gulf, with 2-4 ft seas.

Locally fresh winds are evident on a recent satellite

scatterometer pass in the Straits of Florida. A few showers and

tstorms are also evident in the Straits on satellite imagery.

For the forecast, weak high pressure located over north Florida

and the adjacent Atlantic will slide northeastward and into the NW

Atlantic through tonight to produce moderate to occasionally

fresh E to SE winds across the S and W Gulf. Otherwise, moderate

or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of

the basin through Sat. The next cold front is expected to enter

the northern Gulf on Sun morning, bringing strong N to NE winds

and building seas behind the front. The front is expected to reach

the south-central Gulf along 24N by Mon morning, and move south

of the basin Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates pulsing strong to

near-gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean off the coast

of Colombia. Seas are 7-9 ft in this region. Elsewhere, in the

central Caribbean, fresh to strong winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail.

Fresh NE winds are also noted in the Windward Passage. These

winds are the results of strong high pressure over the subtropical

Atlantic and lower pressure over South America. A surface trough,

the remnants of the last frontal boundary, persists in the NW

Caribbean waters. Scattered showers and tstorms are in these

waters. NE winds are gentle to moderate, with 3-5 ft seas. In the

E Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough

seas are expected over the central Caribbean through Sun morning

due to the pressure gradient between the Colombian low and a

modest western Atlantic ridge. Winds will pulse to near gale-force

at night offshore of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to

locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will

prevail over the Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages

and into the eastern part of the basin through Mon night. A cold

front will enter the northwestern Caribbean Mon, accompanied by

increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This front is

expected to reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue evening, then

will begin to stall and weaken through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on

GALE WARNINGS for the western and eastern Atlantic Ocean, and a

SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT in the eastern Atlantic.

Strong 1032 mb high pressure centered near 32N32W continues to

build across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and

support N winds to gale force near the Canary Islands, where a

GALE WARNING remains in effect. Strong to near-gale force N winds

become fresh to strong NE winds south of 25N to the ITCZ. These

weather conditions have built a large area of swell with seas in

excess of 8 ft over the entire Atlantic Ocean east of 60W. West of

40W, the swell direction is primarily E with 12-13 sec periods.

East of 40W, the swell direction is N with 15-19 sec periods.

Descriptions of areas with higher seas associated with the

SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT are found in SPECIAL FEATURES. Elsewhere,

4-7 ft seas and moderate or weaker winds prevail.

For the forecast, the stationary front is forecast to lift

northward and dissipate. The next strong cold front is slated to

move off the coast of the southeastern United States on Sun, with

strong to gale-force winds and quickly building seas expected

behind the front through Mon morning. The front is forecast to

reach from just E of Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Mon

morning, then weaken considerably as it reaches from 30N55W to the

SE Bahamas and central Cuba Tue morning. Large N swell will build

in across the regional waters behind the front Sun night through

Tue morning before subsiding.

$$

Mahoney

AXNT20 KNHC 131721

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Sat Dec 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

West Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force winds are forecast to

begin at 15/0000 UTC, lasting through 15/1200 UTC, northwest of a

cold front that will move across the western Atlantic waters.

Seas will range from 12-14 ft. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS

FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more

information.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: MeteoFrance has issued a Gale

Warning for the MADEIRA and CANARIAS Marine Zones. For Madeira,

the warning is valid through 13/2100 UTC, and for Canarias, the

warning is valid through 14/0000 UTC. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS

FORECAST issued by MeteoFrance at:

https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more

information.

East Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Continuing strong to near-

gale force north winds in the lee of a dissipated frontal boundary

has built a significant area of large, long period N swell in the

eastern Atlantic Ocean. Seas 12 ft or greater are north of 15N and

east of 35W, with peak seas to 22 ft near the Canary Islands. The

swell direction is N with 15-19 sec periods. Peak seas are

forecast to diminish tonight, subsiding below 12 ft by early

Monday morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued

by MeteoFrance at: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2

for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through 08N13W and extends

to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 01N50W. Scattered

moderate convection is from 03N to 11N east of 28W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered moderate convection, associated with a surface trough,

is from 25N to 29N between 94W and 96W in the NW Gulf waters.

1024 mb high pressure centered over N Florida provides for gentle

to moderate E to SE winds across the Gulf, with 2-4 ft seas.

Locally fresh winds are evident on a recent satellite

scatterometer pass in the Straits of Florida. A few showers and

tstorms are also evident in the Straits on satellite imagery.

For the forecast, weak high pressure located over north Florida

and the adjacent Atlantic will slide northeastward and into the NW

Atlantic through tonight to produce moderate to occasionally

fresh E to SE winds across the S and W Gulf. Otherwise, moderate

or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of

the basin through Sat. The next cold front is expected to enter

the northern Gulf on Sun morning, bringing strong N to NE winds

and building seas behind the front. The front is expected to reach

the south-central Gulf along 24N by Mon morning, and move south

of the basin Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates pulsing strong to

near-gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean off the coast

of Colombia. Seas are 7-9 ft in this region. Elsewhere, in the

central Caribbean, fresh to strong winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail.

Fresh NE winds are also noted in the Windward Passage. These

winds are the results of strong high pressure over the subtropical

Atlantic and lower pressure over South America. A surface trough,

the remnants of the last frontal boundary, persists in the NW

Caribbean waters. Scattered showers and tstorms are in these

waters. NE winds are gentle to moderate, with 3-5 ft seas. In the

E Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough

seas are expected over the central Caribbean through Sun morning

due to the pressure gradient between the Colombian low and a

modest western Atlantic ridge. Winds will pulse to near gale-force

at night offshore of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to

locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will

prevail over the Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages

and into the eastern part of the basin through Mon night. A cold

front will enter the northwestern Caribbean Mon, accompanied by

increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This front is

expected to reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue evening, then

will begin to stall and weaken through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on

GALE WARNINGS for the western and eastern Atlantic Ocean, and a

SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT in the eastern Atlantic.

Strong 1032 mb high pressure centered near 32N32W continues to

build across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and

support N winds to gale force near the Canary Islands, where a

GALE WARNING remains in effect. Strong to near-gale force N winds

become fresh to strong NE winds south of 25N to the ITCZ. These

weather conditions have built a large area of swell with seas in

excess of 8 ft over the entire Atlantic Ocean east of 60W. West of

40W, the swell direction is primarily E with 12-13 sec periods.

East of 40W, the swell direction is N with 15-19 sec periods.

Descriptions of areas with higher seas associated with the

SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT are found in SPECIAL FEATURES. Elsewhere,

4-7 ft seas and moderate or weaker winds prevail.

For the forecast, the stationary front is forecast to lift

northward and dissipate. The next strong cold front is slated to

move off the coast of the southeastern United States on Sun, with

strong to gale-force winds and quickly building seas expected

behind the front through Mon morning. The front is forecast to

reach from just E of Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Mon

morning, then weaken considerably as it reaches from 30N55W to the

SE Bahamas and central Cuba Tue morning. Large N swell will build

in across the regional waters behind the front Sun night through

Tue morning before subsiding.

$$

Mahoney