AXNT20 KNHC 020852
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat May 2 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from northern
Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong N-NE winds with
frequent gusts to gale-force are over the NW Gulf, including the
coastal waters, behind the front, along with building rough seas.
By later this morning, expect sustained minimal gale force winds
offshore Tampico, Mexico, spreading southward offshore Veracruz by
early afternoon, then persisting off Veracruz into Sun morning.
Rough to very rough seas will accompany these sustained gale-force
winds. Marine conditions will improve by early Mon with ridging
gradually building back over the basin into early Tue.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details,
and also consult products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office for details over the coastal waters.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, with an axis near 30W,
from 10.5N southward, moving relatively quickly westward at
around 20 kt. This wave is encompassed within a thick Saharan Air
Layer with significant dry air and an otherwise hostile
environment preventing any sort of deep convection near the
northern portion of the wave, however scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is present south of 04N between 23W and 41W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from inland Africa to near 10N18W. The
ITCZ reaches from 03N15W to 00.5N28.5W, where it breaks due to
the first tropical wave of the season, continuing west of the wave
from 01N33W to the coast of Brazil at 00.5N50W. Other than the
convection near and mentioned with the tropical wave above,
scattered moderate is noted from 01S to 02N between 45W and 50W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
a Gale Warning in the western Gulf.
As referenced above, a cold front extends from northern Florida
to near Tampico, Mexico, with fresh to strong winds and frequent
gusts to gale-force behind it. Seas are 5-8 ft behind the front
to the west of 94W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere behind the front. Some
scattered showers are noted on satellite imagery near the
boundary, with some thunderstorm activity from SE Louisiana well
into the southeastern United States. Fresh SE winds and 4-6 ft
seas are noted just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds are
mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the basin,
along with 2-4 ft seas, except 1-3 ft east of 87W. Areas of smoke
due to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are
limiting visibility to 3-5 miles over the far western Gulf and
along the west and northwest Yucatan coasts in the Bay of
Campeche.
For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to the central Bay of Campeche this evening, then stall
and gradually wash out as it reaches from the Florida Keys to the
NW Yucatan Peninsula Sun evening. Fresh to strong N-NE winds with
frequent gusts to gale-force are over the NW Gulf, including the
coastal waters, behind the front, along with building rough seas.
By later this morning, expect sustained minimal gale force winds
offshore Tampico, Mexico, spreading southward offshore Veracruz by
early afternoon, then persisting off Veracruz into Sun morning.
Rough to very rough seas will accompany these sustained gale-force
winds. Marine conditions will improve by early Mon with ridging
gradually building back over the basin into early Tue. Return flow
will dominate Tue night through Wed night, moderate to fresh in
the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate in the eastern Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between a 1017 mb high pressure in the
Atlantic near 26N61W and a 1007 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong trades off northern
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 5-8 ft in these
areas. Fresh to locally strong E winds are also ongoing north of
Honduras in the vicinity of the Bay Islands and into the Gulf of
Honduras, where seas are also 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly
trades prevail elsewhere, except gentle in the SW Caribbean south
of 11N. Seas are 2-4 ft north of 17N between 78W and 84W, and 4-6
ft across the remainder of the basin. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is occurring across the Nicaragua, Panama, and
Costa Rica offshore waters.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to
fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean, pulsing to
strong speeds at times in the south-central Caribbean and in the
Gulf of Honduras with locally rough seas. A weakening cold front
will approach the Yucatan Channel by Mon, stalling and washing out
just north of it into the early part of next week. This will
slightly and briefly weaken the pressure gradient and winds across
the NW Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A front in the central Atlantic from near 31N59W to 29N68W to
31N74W is losing definition, with some remnant moderate winds near
it. A new front is beginning to become evident off the waters of
northern Florida with moderate to locally fresh SW winds ahead of
it, north of 27N and west of 74W. High pressure of 1017 mb is over
the waters south of these fronts, near 26N61W. Moderate E-SE
winds are around the high south of 22N and west of 65W to across
the waters between the Greater Antilles and through the Bahamas.
Seas are 2-4 ft from 22N to 29N west of 65W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere
west of 55W. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are
elsewhere under the high north of 20N and west of 50W.
To the east, a pesky dissipating stationary front reaches from an
1009 mb occluded low north of the area at 34N41W through 31N35W
to 27N55W. Some remnant 6-8 ft seas are north of this decaying
front. 1020 mb high pressure is ahead of the front at 27N23W with
a ridge reaching from near the Iberian Peninsula through the high
to 20N50W. Winds are mainly gentle right under the ridge. A
locally tight pressure gradient is present between Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands with fresh to strong winds there. Winds are
mainly moderate across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic,
along with 5-7 ft seas in mainly NW-N swells.
For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary from near 31N59W
to 29N65W to 31N74W will weaken and shift slightly east today. A
cold front to the west, from 31N78.5W to near Daytona Beach,
Florida will reach from near 31N72W to South Florida by Sun
morning, then stall from 31N61W to 27N74W to the northern Bahamas
by early Mon. Weak low pressure may develop along the front at
that time, sliding northeastward into early Tue. Fresh to strong
winds will precede the front later today. Mainly fresh winds will
follow the front through Sun night, increasing to fresh to strong
by early Mon into early Tue near the low pressure, and back north
of the front. Meanwhile, expect locally rough seas near and fresh
to strong winds. The remnants of the front should wash out Wed
with improving marine conditions.
$$
Lewitsky