AXNT20 KNHC 160843

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Thu Oct 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Large Swell...

Northerly swell generated from a developing gale force low over

the Atlantic waters N of the discussion area will generate large

northerly swell. Very rough seas, with seas greater than 12 ft,

generated from the swell will propagate into the discussion waters

between 65W and 70W on Friday. The area if 12 ft seas will spread

SE, covering the waters N of 27N between 50W and 68W by Sat

night. The swell will then start to subside over the discussion

waters, falling below 12 ft Sun night. Seas with this swell will

peak near 18 ft over the waters N of 30N between 55W and 60W Sat.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National

Hurricane Center at website -

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W/32W S of

18N, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated

strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 30W and 34W.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W S of 15N,

and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated

strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 38W and 48W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and extends SW

to near 08N22W to 09N33W. The ITCZ continues from 09N33W to

08N33W. It resumes from 07N45W to 07N50W. Aside from convection

noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate and

isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 13N between 10W

and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from the central Gulf SE to the Yucatan

channel. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in

the vicinity of the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder

of the Gulf waters. Gentle to moderate winds are noted E of 90W,

with light to gentle winds W of 90W. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range

E of 90W and 1-2 ft W of 90W.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region,

resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas

over much of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the Atlantic waters across Hispaniola

and Jamaica. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is

in the vicinity of the front. A weak pressure gradient prevails

across the Caribbean waters. Gentle to moderate winds are over the

far eastern Caribbean with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas

are in the 2-3 ft range in the far eastern Caribbean, and 2 ft or

less elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate

or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the

basin through Sat. A tropical wave will move across the tropical

Atlantic waters late this weekend with fresh to strong winds, and

rough seas accompanying the wave. The tropical wave is forecast to

enter the Caribbean waters by early next week, bringing fresh

winds and rough seas over the eastern Caribbean waters.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for further details

on large swell impacting the area waters Fri through the weekend.

A cold front extends from 31N56W SW to Hispaniola. Scattered

moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm east of the front.

Fresh to strong winds are N of 25N and E of the front to 50W.

Gentle to moderate winds are W of the front. Elsewhere N of 20N,

high pressure dominates the Atlantic discussion waters anchored by

a 1018 mb high centered near 23.5N28.5W. The 1008 mb remnant low

of Lorenzo is centered near 25N41W. Scattered moderate convection

is in the vicinity of the low. The pressure gradient between the

high and Lorenzo remnants is supporting fresh to strong winds over

the waters N of 25N between 31W and 40W. Light winds are around

the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere.

Seas of 8-12 ft prevail over the waters N of 25N between 30W and

75W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-7 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, a series of cold fronts will move

across the forecast waters through Sat. High pressure will then

build in the wake of the fronts. Fresh to strong winds are

expected across the waters N of 25N through at least Sat before

winds diminish. The fronts will usher in northerly swell across

the forecast waters. Rough seas will cover the waters N of 25N

through the end of the week, before spreading southward to cover

much of the waters E of 70W by Sat. Seas will then subside from

west to east the remainder of the weekend into early next week.

Very rough seas will move into the waters N of 27N and E of 70W

from early Fri through Sat night.

$$

AL

AXNT20 KNHC 160624

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Thu Oct 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event...

Large W swell and wind waves generated by fresh to strong winds

will keep 11 to 13 ft seas north of 28N between 35W and 42W until

early Thursday morning. Then large SW swell and wind waves related

to a strong cold front will cause 11 to 13 ft seas north of 27N

between 50W and 35W by Thursday afternoon. These very rough seas

will then shift eastward along with the cold front through

Saturday. Afterward, an intense low pressure at the northwestern

Atlantic could bring even larger N swell across the western

Atlantic later in the weekend.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National

Hurricane Center at website -

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is southwest of the Cabo

Verde Islands near 30W from 15N southward, and moving west around

15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen

from 04N to 12N between 27W and 36W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 13N southward,

and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate with

isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 09N between 37W

and 48W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of

Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then curves southwestward across

07N22W to 09N32W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N32W to

08N40W, then northwestward from 07N44W to 09N51W. Scattered to

numerous heavy showers are occurring near and south of the

monsoon trough from 03N to 12N between the Guinea-Bissau/Liberia

coast and 18W. Convection near the ITCZ is already described in

the Tropical Waves section above.

Numerous heavy showers and scattered strong thunderstorms are

evident at the Gulf of Venezuela, near the eastern end of the

East Pacific monsoon trough.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated

thunderstorms from the central Gulf southeastward to the Yucatan

Channel. Moderate to locally fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 3

to 5 ft are noted near this trough and at the eastern Gulf,

including the Florida Straits. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft

seas prevail for rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the region, resulting in

gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over much of

the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western end of a cold front lies over eastern Cuba and the

Great Bahama Bank. Convergent SW winds south of this feature are

generating scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms from

near Jamaica eastward across Hispaniola to western Puerto Rico.

Farther east, an upper-level trough is triggering isolated

thunderstorms near the Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon

Trough section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea.

Gentle to moderate winds from the south dominate the eastern

basin, while similar winds from the NW are present at the lee of

Cuba. Seas at both areas are from 2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds

with 1 to 2 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate

or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the

basin through Sat. A tropical wave will move across the tropical

Atlantic waters late this weekend with fresh to strong winds, and

rough seas accompanying the wave. The tropical wave is forecast to

enter the Caribbean waters by early next week, bringing fresh

winds and rough seas over the eastern basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for further details

on significant swells in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends southwestward from northeast of Bermuda

across 31N57W and the southeast Bahamas to eastern Cuba.

Convergent SW winds south of the front are causing scattered

moderate convection from 20N to 23N between 60W and 67W. A surface

trough is sustaining scattered moderate convection east of the

Leeward Island from 16N to 21N between 53W and 60W. Farther

northeast, the remnants of Tropical Storm Jerry is causing

scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 23N to 26N

between 39W and 41W. Convergent southerly winds south of a

stationary front across the northern-central Atlantic are

creating similar convection north of 28N between 30W and 34W.

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at

the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin

Other than the significant swells mentioned in the Special

Features section at the very beginning, fresh to strong with

locally near-gale SW winds and 6 to 10 ft seas are present north

of 23N between 35W and 63W. Farther west north of 23N, moderate to

locally fresh NW to N winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are noted. For

the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 23N between 35W and the

southeast Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with

locally fresh ENE to SE to SW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are seen.

For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to

moderate ESE to S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mix moderate swells

prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a series of cold fronts will move

across the western and central Atlantic waters through Sat. High

pressure will then build in the wake of the fronts. Fresh to

strong winds are expected across the waters north of 25N through

at least Sat before diminishing. The fronts will usher in several

rounds of northerly swell across the same region. Rough seas will

cover the waters north of 25N through Sat, before spreading

southward to cover much of the waters east of 70W by Sat. Seas

will then subside from west to east the remainder of the weekend

into early next week. Very rough seas will move into the waters

north of 27N and east of 70W from early Fri through Sat night.

$$

Chan