AXNT20 KNHC 012252
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Aug 2 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles, with
axis near 58W-59W, south of 22N, and moving west near 15 kt.
Scattered showers and tstorms are about the wave and across the
islands of the Lesser Antilles, south of 23N between 55W and 64W.
Fresh trade winds prevail across northern portions of the wave
axis east of the NE Caribbean.
A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 72W,
south of 20N, and moving west 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is inland over western Venezuela.
A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis near 82W,
south of 20N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and
tstorms are inland across Nicaragua and NE Honduras.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16.5N16.5W, and
extends to 08N38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to
12.5N east of 35W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 08N54W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
1021 mb high pressure centered over the central Gulf remains in
control across the basin. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and
1-3 ft seas prevail. Widely scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms dot the NW waters well offshore of the Louisiana
coast, while afternoon thunderstorms over south and central
Florida have begun to shift westward into the Florida Gulf coastal
waters.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the basin
through the forecast period, supporting mostly gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase across the northern Gulf
this weekend into Mon as a weak low pressure develops in the
vicinity of SE Louisiana, along a stalling frontal boundary.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for associated weather.
The passing tropical waves and the subtropical Atlantic high
pressure ridge extending westward through the northern Bahamas
guide the weather conditions across the Caribbean. The most recent
satellite scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh trades
across the central Caribbean, with strong trades noted in the
south-central Caribbean south of 13.5N off the coast of Colombia.
Seas in the central Caribbean are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere in the eastern
and western Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft
seas. Gentle NE to E winds and seas of 3 ft or less prevail across
NW portions.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure ridge along 27N and the Colombia low will continue to
allow for fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over the
south- central Caribbean through Wed night. The strongest winds
will occur off the coast of Colombia, occasionally pulsing to near
gale-force at night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail over
the E Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds are forecast for
the NW Caribbean. A tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers
and thunderstorms, and gusty winds, is currently moving through
the tropical Atlantic waters, and will cross the Lesser Antilles
tonight moving across into the eastern Caribbean on Sat.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section.
1028 mb high pressure centered near 30N51W extends a ridge west-
southwestward across the northern Bahamas to southeast Florida,
and continues to dominate the basin. A broad zone of fresh trade
winds prevails across northern portions of the tropical wave
approaching the Lesser Antilles this evening, from 18N to 23N
between 57W and 62W, where seas are 7 to 8 ft. Elsewhere across
the basin W of 35W, gentle to mostly moderate trades and 4-6 ft
seas prevail. NE to SW aligned convergence lines of scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring north of 26N between
67W and 75W. Gentle SW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail across
this area.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the weather
pattern through the period, supporting a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas. The pressure
gradient between a tropical wave currently nearing the Lesser
Antilles and the Atlantic high pressure will support an area of
fresh to locally strong E to SE winds with moderate to rough seas
that will move north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico through
midday Sat. Winds and seas will diminish by Sat afternoon as the
wave moves westward and high pressure weakens some.
$$
Stripling
