AXNT20 KNHC 300407
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Jan 30 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A trailing cold front will move off
the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and
building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama
City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The
low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the
western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it exits to the
southeast of the basin on Sat, and usher in another blast of
arctic air across the Gulf that will support winds to gale- force
near Veracruz Fri night into early on Sat, and across the eastern
Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across
the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to
E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into
the northern Gulf following the front.
Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move between northeast
Florida and Bermuda tonight, but stall early Fri and lift north of
the area through late Fri ahead of a complex low pressure system
moving into the Carolina coast. This system will send an unusually
strong and powerful arctic cold front off the northeast Florida
coast Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is forecast
to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun,
becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area of westerly
gale-force winds covering the local waters N of about 23.5N, and
the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of
the area Sun night. The front is expected to reach from near
31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern
Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from bear
27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the
front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters N and E
of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week. Mariners
should monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and prepare to
execute avoidance plans from these conditions.
Of note: With the aforementioned cold front, a potentially record
breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week
in South Florida. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures
are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sunday,
Monday and Tuesday morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far
south as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all
of South Florida.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W, and continues southwestward to 03N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N19W to 02N35W and to 00N50W. Isolated moderate
convection is observed south of 05N and between 23W and 40W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning, expected to begin on Sat.
High pressure dominates the Gulf of America, supporting moderate
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast, a trailing cold front will move off the Texas
coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building
seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida
to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will
rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the western
Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it exits to the
southeast of the basin on Sat, and usher in another blast of
arctic air across the Gulf that will support winds to gale- force
near Veracruz Fri night into early on Sat, and across the eastern
Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across
the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to
E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into
the northern Gulf following the front.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A dissipating stationary front extends from the Windward Passage
to just west of Jamaica and southwestward to near coastal Nicaragua.
A few showers are noted near this boundary. Moderate to locally
fresh N winds are found south of 19N and in the lee of Cuba. Seas
behind the front are slight to moderate. Meanwhile, fresh to near
gale-force NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring in the south-
central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are
evident in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.
For the forecast, the front may briefly start moving southeastward
as a weakening cold front Fri into Sat. This will happen ahead of
an unusually strong cold front that is forecast to move into the
northwestern Caribbean Sat morning and move southeastward, merge
with the old lingering front from eastern Cuba to western Panama
Sat evening. The merged front will reach from eastern Hispaniola
to the northwest coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to
stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Colombia by early Tue.
Strong to near gale-force N winds and rough seas are expected
behind this front.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning in the W Atlantic, expected to begin late Sat.
A stationary front extends from 31N49W to 23N63W and to northern
Haiti. Some showers are noted near this boundary. High pressure
dominates much of the SW N Atlantic, supporting moderate to fresh
easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 25N and west of the
aforementioned front. Moderate to locally strong W-NW winds and
seas of 8-13 ft are found north of 28N and west of the
aforementioned front to 75W. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas of
10-13 ft are evident north of 27N and east of the front to 38W.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad
subtropical ridge centered over the NE Atlantic that extends
southeastward to Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate to rough seas are evident south of 20N and west
of 35W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and rough seas are occurring
from 13N to 25N and east of 35W. Large northerly swell spreads
across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well
north of the area. Rough to very rough seas are reaching the
Madeira and Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move between
northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight, but stall early Fri and
lift north of the area through late Fri ahead of a complex low
pressure system moving into the Carolina coast. This system will
send an unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the
northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low
pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat
through Sun, becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large
area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters N of
about 23.5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening,
before lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is expected to
reach from near 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to
eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall
from bear 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake
of the front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters N
and E of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week.
Mariners should monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and
prepare to execute avoidance plans from these conditions.
$$
Delgado